以下是笔者从一位在海外一线对冲基金的朋友处获得的内部材料，我们可以看到优秀的海外基金经理还是深谙A股的特色玩法的，同时这可能也是交易型北向资金对中短线投资者具有重要参考意义的原因之一：
It is often said that "luck makes money, but skill loses it," which is a humorous take on the reality faced by many investors. Here, we will perform logical attribution on the investment models of some typical industries. Birds of a feather flock together, and people divide themselves into groups. In fact, A-share market has formed its own mainstream investment groups in various sectors. Each group is highly professional in its area of expertise, which has created the appearance of highly competitive behavior. This means that the pricing process tends to accelerate. Inadvertently crossing industry boundaries, inexperienced "outsiders" often fall into the strange trap of speaking different languages, leading to disorganized rhythms.
俗话说：“凭运气赚到的钱会凭实力亏出去”，这是许多投资者面临的现实，也是一种幽默的说法。本文中，我们将对一些典型行业的投资模型进行逻辑归因。物以类聚，人以群分。实际上，A股市场在各个领域已经形成了自己的主流投资群体。每个群体在其专业领域内高度专业化，这创造了极度内卷的表现。这意味着定价过程往往会加速。不经意间的跨界，缺乏经验的“外部投资者”经常陷入被割韭菜的境地，导致投资节奏混乱。
Therefore, cross-industry investment requires conforming to local practices and matching the corresponding investment models, which helps to control the pace and maintain a balanced mindset. Of course, regularly improving the investment profit models behind each industry also helps us understand the changes in the A-share market ecology.
因此，跨行业投资需要符合该行业的惯例并匹配相应的投资模型，这有助于控制节奏和保持平衡的心态。当然，定期改进每个行业背后的投资盈利模型也有助于我们了解A股市场生态的变化。
As a leading global hedge fund, we have encountered similar challenges in the US equity market. Different sectors have their own investment styles and rules, and it takes time and effort to understand and adapt to each one. However, by conducting in-depth research and collaborating with industry experts, we have been able to develop successful investment strategies across various sectors, such as technology, healthcare, and finance. For example, we have made significant profits by investing in leading technology companies like Apple and Amazon, as well as emerging biotech companies with promising clinical trials.
作为全球领先的对冲基金，在美国股票市场我们也遇到了类似的挑战。不同的行业有各自的投资风格和规则，理解和适应每个行业需要时间和精力。然而，通过深入研究和与行业专家合作，我们已经能够开发出成功的跨行业投资策略，如科技、医疗和金融等领域。例如，我们通过投资领先的科技公司如苹果和亚马逊，以及一些有前途的生物技术公司获得了不菲的利润。
In conclusion, whether in A-share or US equity markets, it is crucial to understand the characteristics of each sector and match the corresponding investment models to achieve long-term success.
总之，无论是A股还是美国股票市场，了解每个行业的特点并匹配相应的投资模型是实现长期成功的关键。
Consumer Goods Sector: Focusing on Core Competencies and the Critical Role of Pricing Power
消费品行业：专注核心竞争力和定价能力
Over the years, a key concern within the consumer goods sector has consistently been the ability to raise prices. Pricing power is an indicator of a company's brand strength and a reflection of the industry's supply-demand dynamics. After all, a bottle of wine could be sold for $10 or $1,000, depending on a multitude of factors. There is a saying that all A-share consumer goods analysts eventually turn to the spirits industry – a notion that has proven accurate over the past decade.
多年来，消费品行业一直存在一个关键问题，那就是提高价格的能力。定价能力是公司品牌实力的一个指标，也是反映行业供需动态的一个指标。毕竟，一瓶酒的售价可以在10美元或1000美元之间变化，这取决于众多因素。有一种说法，A股所有的消费品分析师最终都会转向酒类行业——这一观点在过去的十年中已经被证明是准确的。
From a volume perspective, the domestic cosmetics and medical aesthetics industries still have room for penetration rate increases and opportunities for domestic substitution, while the value redistribution in the supply chain of pre-packaged meals presents investment opportunities. In contrast, mass-market consumer goods generally lack a compelling volume-based rationale. The consumer goods sector is inherently slow-moving, as brand establishment, channel control, and consumer recognition all require a substantial amount of time to develop. As such, pricing power is of utmost importance.
从销量的角度来看，国内化妆品和医疗美容行业仍有提高渗透率和国产替代的机会，而预制品供应链中的价值再分配则呈现出投资机会。相比之下，大众消费品普遍缺乏令人信服的基于销量的理由。消费品行业本质上是缓慢移动的，因为品牌建立、渠道控制和消费者认可都需要大量的时间来发展。因此，定价能力至关重要。
Institutional investors often maintain significant positions in the consumer goods sector, with their focus primarily on companies that possess core competencies (i.e., economic moats) and the ability to create long-term value. Consequently, the test for investors lies in their patience for holding stocks. In most cases, long-term holdings at reasonable valuations prove to be profitable.
机构投资者经常在消费品行业持有重要的头寸，他们的重点主要集中在具有核心竞争力（经济护城河）和创造长期价值能力的公司上。因此，投资者的考验在于持有股票的耐心。在大多数情况下，以合理的估值进行长期持有往往是有利可图的。
A notable example from the US equity market is The Procter & Gamble Company (PG), a multinational consumer goods corporation that has consistently demonstrated its pricing power and ability to adapt to shifting market dynamics. Through a combination of strong brand equity, extensive distribution networks, and a focus on innovation, Procter & Gamble has managed to maintain its competitive edge, making it a prime example of a successful long-term investment in the consumer goods sector.
美国股票市场的一个显著例子是宝洁公司（Procter & Gamble），这是一家多国籍消费品公司，一直展示着其定价能力和适应市场变化的能力。通过强大的品牌资产、广泛的分销网络和专注于创新，宝洁公司成功地保持了其竞争优势，成为消费品行业中成功的长期投资的一个典范。
Electronic and New Energy Sectors: Capturing Long-term Industry Trends and enjoy Davis Double-Click
电子和新能源行业：抓住长期行业趋势并享受戴维斯双击
Since 2009, we have witnessed multiple rounds of innovation and development in various sectors, including the "consumer electronics cycle," "industrial equipment upgrades," "several rounds of the solar energy cycle," "nascent semiconductor cycle," "explosion of new energy vehicles," and "energy storage boom." The electronics, new energy, and machinery industries have exemplified the manufacturing sector's evolution over the past decade. Domestic firms across these industry chains have demonstrated global competitiveness and excelled in specialized divisions of labor. However, their weaker recognition among end consumers, particularly in international markets, has resulted in a relatively low share of value capture. This is partly due to their reliance on international brands and channels for cost-effective overseas expansion.
自2009年以来，我们见证了各个行业中多轮创新和发展，包括“消费电子周期”、“工业设备升级”、“周期”、“新兴半导体周期”、“新能源汽车爆发”和“储能热潮”。电子、新能源和机械行业是过去十年制造业发展的典范。这些产业链的国内企业展示了全球竞争力，并在分工专业化领域取得了卓越成绩。然而，它们在终端消费者中的认可度较弱，特别是在国际市场上，导致价值占据相对较低。这部分原因是它们依赖国际品牌和渠道来实现成本有效的海外扩张。
These sectors have consistently produced strong performers with solid financials, as companies continue to consolidate and develop their core competencies. Consequently, they have attracted a large number of institutional investors, making them among the most popular sectors for on-the-ground research. The most prevalent investment approach within these sectors is cyclical trend investing, occasionally accompanied by thematic investing. The primary driving forces are the increasing penetration and localization rates driven by the explosive growth in end-user applications.
这些行业一直产生财务稳健的强劲表现，因为公司持续巩固和发展其核心竞争力。因此，它们吸引了大量机构投资者，成为实地研究中最受欢迎的行业之一。在这些行业内，最普遍的投资方法是周期性基本面趋势投资，偶尔伴随着主题投资。主要推动力是由终端用户应用的爆炸式增长带来的渗透率和本地化率的不断增加。
In the long run, success in these categories relies on capturing industry trends, experiencing a double boost from valuation and profitability, and testing investors' judgment and imagination. A relevant example from the US equity market is Tesla Inc. (TSLA), a trailblazer in the electric vehicle (EV) sector that has shaped the industry's trajectory. By leveraging innovative technology, efficient manufacturing processes, and a strong brand, Tesla has managed to achieve rapid growth and attract significant institutional investment. As the EV market continues to evolve, investors need to exercise keen foresight and creativity to identify opportunities and capitalize on the ongoing transformation.
从长远来看，这些类别的成功取决于抓住行业趋势，体验估值和盈利能力的双击，并考验投资者的判断和想象力。美国股票市场的一个相关例子是特斯拉公司（Tesla Inc.，TSLA），这是电动汽车（EV）行业的开拓者，塑造了该行业的发展轨迹。通过利用创新技术、高效制造流程和强大品牌，特斯拉成功地实现了快速增长并吸引了大量机构投资。随着电动汽车市场的不断演变，投资者需要行使敏锐的远见和创造力，以识别机会并利用正在进行的转型。
Pharmaceutical Industry: A Microcosm of A-shares, Dominated by Institutional Pricing
制药行业：A 股市场的缩影，机构定价主导
The pharmaceutical industry has historically delivered substantial returns to investors across various segments, including innovative drugs, medical services, and branded traditional Chinese medicine. Despite the impact of centralized procurement, it remains one of the most favored sectors among institutional investors. The industry encompasses a diverse range of characteristics: branded traditional Chinese medicine resembles high-end consumer goods, innovative drug development parallels innovative technology, medical services are akin to branded restaurant chains, and CXOs are comparable to consumer electronics manufacturing. Additionally, event-driven developments can occasionally stimulate speculation in subsectors such as vaccines. The pharmaceutical industry also shares similarities with the chemical sector. In essence, a comprehensive pharmaceutical industry serves as a microcosm of the A-shares market.
历史上，制药行业在各个领域为投资者带来了丰厚的回报，包括创新药品、医疗服务和品牌中药。尽管有集中采购的影响，它仍然是机构投资者最青睐的板块之一。该行业包含了多样性的特征：品牌中药类似于高端消费品，创新药品研发类似于创新技术，医疗服务类似于品牌餐饮连锁，CXOs类似于消费电子制造业。此外，事件驱动的发展有时会刺激疫苗等子行业的投机。制药行业还与化学行业有相似之处。本质上，一个综合性的制药行业可视为 A 股市场的缩影。
The complex ecosystem of the pharmaceutical industry fosters a diverse investor base. However, overall, it remains a sector predominantly influenced by institutional pricing. The driving forces behind the sector primarily stem from the monetization of core competencies (price increases and channel expansion), the realization of innovative pipelines, and the undertaking of industry chain transfers. This landscape tests investors' professional research and judgment capabilities, with profits mainly derived from medium to long-term investments. During periods of high liquidity, speculation can also become rampant.
制药行业复杂的生态系统孕育了多样化的投资者群体。然而，总体而言，它仍然是一个主要受机构定价影响的领域。该领域的驱动力主要源于核心竞争力的货币化（价格上涨和渠道拓展）、创新管线的实现以及承接海外产业链的转移。这种格局考验投资者的专业研究和判断能力，利润主要来自中长期投资。在流动性较高的时期，投机也可能变得猖獗。
An example from the US equity market is Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), a multinational healthcare company that has delivered consistent returns for investors. By focusing on innovation, brand development, and strategic M&A, the company has managed to stay at the forefront of the industry. As the healthcare landscape continues to evolve, investors must exercise professional research and judgment in order to identify potential opportunities and achieve long-term success in this complex sector.
美国股市的一个例子是强生（JNJ），这是一家跨国医疗保健公司，为投资者提供了持续的回报。通过专注于创新、品牌发展和战略并购，该公司成功保持在行业的前沿。随着医疗保健格局的不断演变，投资者必须运用专业研究和判断能力，以便发现潜在的机会并在这个复杂领域取得长期成功。
Computer and Media Sector: A Breeding Ground for Concepts, Characterized by Speculative Trading and Event-Driven Themes
计算机与媒体行业：概念股的孵化地，以投机交易和事件驱动主题为特点
The computer and media sector is known for its abundance of conceptual plays. Since the speculative waves of 2014-15, the overall valuation and pricing of the sector have rarely reached reasonable levels, often oscillating between expensive and even outrageously overpriced valuations. There is a significant disparity between individual stocks within the sector, and the overall growth potential is generally mediocre. Unearthing individual stocks for long-term investments in this sector can be a challenging endeavor.
计算机和传媒行业以丰富的概念股闻名。自2014-15年的投机热潮以来，该行业的整体估值和定价很少达到合理水平，往往在高估和甚至极度高估的估值之间波动。行业内各个股票之间存在显著差异，整体增长潜力一般较为平庸。在这个行业中挖掘适合长期投资的个股可能是一项具有挑战性的工作。
In fact, upon examining the underlying factors behind the sector's fluctuations, one would find that the rallies in the computer and media sector are almost always driven by themes. These include "Internet+" in 2014-15, self-reliant cloud computing in 2019-20, and metaverse, information innovation, and AI in 2022-23. The sector excels at creating something out of nothing, with market trends often reaching their peak alongside media cheerleading and sell-side knowledge dissemination. This is also accompanied by a continuous retracement brought on by the inevitable debunking of these concepts. Over a decade, these industries have experienced such cyclical patterns.
事实上，仔细审查行业波动背后的基本因素，人们会发现计算机和传媒行业的上涨几乎总是由主题驱动。这些主题包括2014-15年的“互联网+”、2019-20年的“自主可控“”云计算“，以及2022-23年的“元宇宙、信息创新和人工智能”。这个行业擅长凭空创造概念，市场趋势往往伴随着媒体热捧和卖方传销达到高峰。这也伴随着这些概念不可避免地被揭穿所引发的持续回撤。在过去十年里，这些行业经历了这样的周期性模式。
The computer and media sector exhibits high-risk preferences and significant volatility, attracting a large number of speculative players. Event-driven, theme-based investments are the most popular investment strategies, testing investors' imagination and trading abilities. In the long run, the profits generated in this sector are primarily derived from trading activities (speculative gains).
计算机和传媒行业表现出高风险偏好和显著的波动性，吸引了大量投机参与者。事件驱动、主题型投资是最受欢迎的投资策略，考验投资者的想象力和交易能力。从长远来看，这个行业产生的利润主要来自投机交易。
A US equity market example is the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s and early 2000s. During this period, companies with little or no revenue, driven primarily by the hype surrounding the internet and technology sector, reached exorbitant valuations. Eventually, the bubble burst, and many of these companies went bankrupt, while others experienced significant declines in their stock prices. Investors who succeeded in this sector relied on their ability to identify trends, imagination, and trading prowess to generate profits through speculation.
美国股市的一个例子是上世纪90年代末和21世纪初的互联网泡沫。在此期间，一些几乎没有收入的公司，在互联网和科技行业的炒作推动下，达到了高得离谱的估值。最终，泡沫破裂，许多公司破产，而其他公司的股价大幅下跌。在这个行业取得成功的投资者依靠识别趋势、想象力和交易能力，通过投机活动获得利润。
Strong Cyclical Industries: Contrarian Mid-Term Investment Approach
强周期性行业：逆势中期投资方法
Strong cyclical industries include energy, raw materials, and transportation sectors, which are highly homogeneous with an abundance of publicly available data. Numerous synchronous indicators can easily be found to illustrate the current state of these industries. Decision-makers in these sectors often consider macroeconomic perspectives when determining capital expenditures, with investments primarily focused on mid-term changes in supply and demand. Historically, fewer investors in the capital markets have been willing to engage in long-term investments in strong cyclical industries due to large cyclical fluctuations and the deeply ingrained "sell low PE, buy high PE" mindset. However, it is worth noting that, after prolonged competition, the industry landscape has continuously improved, leading to an upward pricing power for leading incumbents and an increase in potential returns (at least with each cyclical upswing).
强周期性行业包括能源、原材料和运输等部门，这些行业具有高度同质性和丰富的公开数据。有很多同步指标可以轻松找到，以说明这些行业的现状。这些行业的决策者在确定资本支出时通常会考虑宏观经济的观点，投资主要集中在供需中期变化上。历史上，由于强周期性行业的大幅波动以及根深蒂固的“低市盈率卖出，高市盈率买入”的心态，资本市场上愿意从事这些行业长期投资的投资者较少。然而，值得注意的是，在长期竞争之后，行业格局不断改善，领先企业的定价能力上升，潜在回报增加（至少在每次周期上涨时）。
There are two main investment approaches in strong cyclical industries. The first focuses on bottom pricing when industry conditions bottom out (bottom fishing, preparing for a turnaround in adversity), while the other capitalizes on supply-demand reversals during an upswing (following the trend). Industrial players are more likely to participate in the former approach (with pricing power), while capital markets are more inclined towards the latter. Bottom pricing ability is a common trait among leaders in strong cyclical industries, as once the industry enters a downturn or even reaches cash cost levels, these leaders can endure a bit longer and squeeze smaller players out of the market, thereby optimizing the supply structure.
强周期性行业有两种主要的投资方法。第一种是在行业底部时关注底部定价（逆势寻底，为逆境中的反转做准备），而另一种是在上升期间利用供需逆转（顺势而为）。产业中具有定价能力的参与者更有可能参与前一种方法，而资本市场则更倾向于后者。强周期性行业的领导者通常具有底部定价能力，因为一旦行业进入低迷甚至达到现金成本水平，这些领导者可以忍受更长的时间并挤出市场中的小企业，从而优化供应结构。
Industry leaders with years of experience in their respective sectors have a clear understanding of the pressure boundaries in the supply chain, and therefore, are willing to expand against the trend and engage in bottom pricing. For industrial players, bottom expansion aims to maximize long-term profits. However, investors often lack patience due to the time value of money, and whether it is worthwhile to "wait it out" becomes a crucial consideration. This opportunity cost appears particularly high during bull markets, posing a severe test for investor sentiment. In bear or sideways markets, the cost is limited, and accumulating positions at the bottom ensures limited losses probabilistically, with the remainder being a matter of patiently waiting for the supply-demand reversal. Once this reversal occurs, more investors will enter the market, rapidly establishing trend pricing.
在各自领域拥有多年经验的行业领导者对供应链中的压力边界有清晰的认识，因此，愿意逆势扩张并进行底部定价。对于产业参与者来说，底部扩张旨在实现长期利润最大化。然而，由于货币的时间价值（机会成本），投资者往往缺乏耐心，而“是否值得等待”成为关键考虑因素。在牛市期间，这种机会成本尤为高昂，对投资者情绪构成严重考验。在熊市或横盘市场中，成本有限，底部建仓确保了有限的损失概率，剩下的问题只是耐心等待供需逆转。一旦发生逆转，更多的投资者将进入市场，迅速建立趋势定价。
As a result, investment in these sectors is moving towards a more in-depth specialization (which is challenging for average investors to grasp). The primary investment approaches are based on the expected reversal of continuous adversity in the industry (bottom fishing) and trend investments based on supply-demand reversal (adding positions). This strategy tests investors' understanding of industry supply and demand dynamics, with profits and losses stemming from contrarian mid-term investments (accumulating positions at the bottom, selling at mid-to-high points of the cycle). The opportunity cost of waiting should be carefully considered.
因此，这些行业的投资正朝着更深入的专业化方向发展（这对普通投资者来说具有挑战性）。主要的投资方法基于对行业持续逆境的预期逆转（逆势寻底）和基于供需逆转的趋势投资（加仓）。这种策略考验投资者对行业供需动态的理解，利润和损失来自于逆势中期投资（在周期底部积累仓位，周期中高点卖出）。需要认真考虑等待的机会成本。
An example of a contrarian mid-term investment in the U.S. market is the energy sector during the crude oil price crash in 2014-2016. As oil prices plummeted, many investors withdrew from the market, fearing further declines. However, contrarian investors identified this as an opportunity to invest in fundamentally strong companies, such as Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX), at significantly lower valuations. As oil prices rebounded in the following years, these investments yielded substantial returns for patient, contrarian investors who were able to endure the cyclical downturn.
美国市场上一个逆势中期投资的例子是2014-2016年原油价格暴跌期间的能源行业。随着油价暴跌，许多投资者从市场撤出，担心进一步下跌。然而，逆势投资者将这视为一个机会，投资于基本面强劲的公司，如埃克森美孚（XOM）和雪佛龙（CVX），且估值明显较低。随着油价在接下来的几年反弹，这些投资为能够忍受周期性低迷的耐心、逆势投资者带来了丰厚的回报。
Summary 总结
As we explore various industries, it is crucial to recognize that we cannot expect to find reasonable valuations within thematic investments, nor is it advisable to chase thematic trends in the realm of value investing. Each sector presents unique challenges and competitive landscapes. As we navigate the increasingly specialized and diverse investing landscape of the stock market, it is crucial to adapt our strategies to the unique characteristics of each industry. By doing so, we can optimize our investment approach and better position ourselves for success in the face of varied competitive landscapes.
总之，在探索各种行业时，必须认识到不能在主题投资中期望找到合理的估值，也不应该在价值投资领域追逐主题趋势。每个行业都呈现出独特的挑战和竞争格局。随着股市投资越来越专业化和多元化，必须根据每个行业的独特特征调整我们的投资策略。这样做我们才可以优化我们的投资方法，并在各种不同的竞争格局中更好地为成功做好准备。
